Israel’s likely ground incursion into Lebanon highlights a critical realignment in global geopolitics. The once-dominant United States now struggles to control its ally or influence other key players in an escalating regional crisis.
As Prime Minister Netanyahu advances military operations, President Biden’s calls for restraint underscore a growing rift. This divergence exemplifies America’s dwindling ability to navigate and manage foreign conflicts effectively.
A Humiliating Pattern for the US on Repeat
The repeated pattern of American impotence and Israeli defiance has become increasingly apparent since the October 7 Hamas attacks. These attacks resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths and prompted an Israeli military response in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Often, Israel acts unilaterally, not consulting the US, which complicates American diplomatic efforts and stokes fears of a regional war.
For example, the US was not informed in advance about the Israeli airstrike that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. This lack of communication underscores the perception that the Biden administration is more a spectator than a player. Prolonged shuttle diplomacy by Secretary of State Antony Blinken has yielded limited results, with the US consistently pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza that neither Netanyahu nor Hamas seems inclined to accept.
This scenario is not merely a diplomatic embarrassment. Each instance where the US president’s appeals are ignored diminishes America’s global prestige and influence. President Biden, who positions himself as a foreign policy expert, risks leaving office with the Middle East conflict as a major blemish on his legacy. Despite reservations, the US continues to support Israel, exemplified by the US and its allies aiding in repelling an Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel.
The Price of US-Israeli Tensions
Months of Israeli neglect for US political and strategic concerns have strained relationships between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu. This tension was highlighted when US officials were outraged by Netanyahu’s dismissal of a ceasefire proposal brokered by a US-led group of nations. The Israeli response has often displeased American officials, indicating a fundamental rift.
Retired Colonel Cedric Leighton noted that conversations between US and Israeli officials prior to Israel’s expected move into southern Lebanon were tense. He stressed that Israel has deliberately kept the US uninformed about its military operations, complicating US efforts to restrain Israeli actions. The divergent perspectives between the US and Israel have been increasingly pronounced.
Why Has the US-Israeli Split Widened?
Recent events have positioned the US and Israel in direct conflict concerning their national interests as perceived by their leadership.
The Israeli government sees the attack on October 7 as an existential threat. This view makes even strained relations with the White House tolerable. Israel’s perception of its survival justifies immense Palestinian civilian casualties to its leaders.
Washington, however, views the situation through a broader strategic lens. The US is wary that Israel’s short-term victories may lead to long-term insecurity. America’s interests lie not just in Israeli preservation but also in avoiding deeper involvement in Middle Eastern conflicts, especially after protracted engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Economic implications also abound. Months of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea have disrupted supply chains, impacting global trade. The US is trying to prevent a broader regional conflict that would further endanger its economic and strategic interests.
Israel Thinks It’s Winning, Fueling Its Reluctance to Stop
There are also contrasting military perspectives between the US and Israel. Israel has succeeded in eliminating key threats through precise military actions. Beyond Nasrallah’s elimination, it has targeted other senior figures in Hezbollah and Hamas, sometimes causing massive casualties among their operatives.
Netanyahu sees these victories as justification to continue operations, regardless of US opposition. Washington, on the other hand, is increasingly concerned with the civilian casualties and humanitarian crises resulting from the conflict. Historically stable regions like Lebanon are now facing destabilization, creating additional pressure on the US from allies and tarnishing its image.
The risk of conflicts merging into a multi-front war is significant. A potential direct conflict between the US and Iran would have disastrous economic consequences and shift focus away from US strategic goals, particularly the competition with China.
Venomous Politics Are Changing Long-Held Truths About the US-Israel Relationship
Political dynamics are further complicating US-Israeli relations. Netanyahu’s political survival depends on appeasing his far-right coalition, leading to increasingly provocative actions toward the US administration.
Historically, US-Israel relations enjoyed bipartisan support in America. However, shifts in both Israeli and US politics have strained this relationship. Netanyahu’s influence on US domestic politics and the growing ideological divide within American politics have made support for Israel more contentious.
Biden and Harris are in a difficult position, balancing the need to support Israel with growing progressive dissatisfaction within the Democratic Party. With election implications looming, their handling of the crisis may affect voter turnout and overall support. Netanyahu, aware of these dynamics, is incentivized to expand conflict, further highlighting America’s limited influence and complicating its strategic posture.
The expanding conflict between Israel and Hezbollah amid US diplomatic efforts reveals a sobering reality. America’s once unchallenged influence is now markedly diminished.
The turbulence in US-Israeli relations coupled with broader military and political challenges underscores a pivotal moment in international relations. Washington’s struggle to align its strategic interests with those of its allies marks a significant shift, affecting global stability for years to come.
